Variation #27
By KS Lack
Print: Variated Proof 2/5
Frame: metal fencing, paint
In February 2016, Ukrainska Pravda published the transcript of a meeting that took place the day after Russian forces invaded Crimea.(A) During this meeting, Ukrainian leaders decided not to engage in military action against the invading Russians. They had been warned that such a response could provoke a larger invasion from Putin’s Russia, and the US and NATO would like not come to their aid.(B) The only option, as suggested by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was to become “doves of peace” in the hopes of appeasing Russia.
Russia was not appeased.
Within two months, pro-Russian insurgents in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (collectively called the Donbas) seized control of governmental buildings and declared themselves independent states. While some in the Donbas supported the succession, the wave of disinformation from Russian-backed sources that had flooded the region makes it difficult to know the level of actual support. It is now known that the Russian government orchestrated the insurgency from the beginning despite their denials—at least one of the leaders was, in fact, a Russian military agent.(C,D)
When Ukraine regained control of most of the region later that year, Russia escalated its involvement by sending more troops, tanks and artillery into the area, though it again denied any direct role. All parties eventually signed a ceasefire agreement in September 2014, but it never truly held. Instead, Russian and Ukrainian forces entrenched themselves in their respective positions, leading to a protracted stalemate.
A stalemate, however, does not mean the war went cold. Between the start of hostilities in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of February 2022, approximately 14,000 people were killed, including over 3,400 civilians. By 2021, close to 1.5 million people had been forced to flee the region, registering as internally displaced people (IDPS) within Ukraine.(E)
The war we are witnessing now began in 2014. We know what life under Putin’s regime looks like for Ukrainians. Civilians have disappeared— either interned or killed; children have been taken from their homes and forcibly indoctrinated into Russian society; the Ukrainian language and culture have been banned.(F,G,H)
You can debate the labels—whether it’s ethnic cleansing or genocide—but not the outcome: Russia has launched a war to destroy Ukraine. To believe otherwise is to fall victim to its lies.
A) For more on Crimea, see Variations #5 and #24.
B) This is despite the fact that, by invading Ukraine, Russia had violated the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia, the US and the UK promised not to “use military or economic coercion” against Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus in exchange for these countries giving up their nuclear arsenals.
C) For more on Russia’s disinformation campaigns, see Variation #3.
D) Igor Strelkov, the man who sparked the uprising by seizing Sloviansk in Donetsk, is actually Russian army veteran and former FSB officer Igor Girkin.
E) For more on Ukrainian refugees, see Variation #12.
F) For more on civilian executions, see Variation #8.
G) For more on Ukraine’s children, see Variation #1.
H) For more on Ukrainian language and culture see Variations #2, #7 and #17.
See below for further reading and background.
Cтенограма засідання РНБО України у зв'язку з початком російської агресії в Криму, Українська правда, 22 Feb 16.
Igor Girkin, Wikipedia.
Igor Girkin, Imprisoned Russian Nationalist Plans To Join Troops Invading Ukraine, RFE/RL, 10 Apr 24.
Putin admits Russian military presence in Ukraine for first time, The Guardian, 17 Dec 15.
Conflict-related civilian casualties in Ukraine, United Nations Human Rights Report, 27 Jan 22.
Displacement, Reintegration, and Reconciliation in Ukraine, Part I: An Introduction, Ukrainian Research Institute, Harvard University, 2021.
In the Filtration Camps, The New Yorker, 03 Oct 22.
The Kremlin’s occupation Playbook: Coerced Russification and ethnic cleansing in occupied Ukraine, Institute for the Study of War, 8 Feb 2024.
What’s happening in Ukraine is genocide. Period., The Washington Post, 05 Apr 22.