Variation #26
By Konrad Will
Print: Variated Edition 18/18
Frame: scaffolding
It can be difficult, especially to those of us on the outside, to focus on anything beyond the war. The immediacy of what is happening—the daily toll so clearly high—makes planning for the future seem almost naive.
Yet, for Ukraine to continue functioning as a country, it must plan for its future, even amidst the trauma of war. This involves not just rapid recovery measures, like repairing bombed energy grids and providing temporary housing for refugees—steps taken defensively to restore vital infrastructure damaged or destroyed by Russia.(A,B) Ukraine is aiming for more than mere survival; even in the midst of war, the country is striving to build something better than what existed before.
Consider Ukraine’s IT business, which has grown since the start of the full-scale invasion. Companies focusing on cutting-edge technology, such as cybersecurity and drones, are using the necessity of combating Russian attacks to drive long-term growth. In the energy sector, efforts to restore Ukraine’s power supply are also looking to the future. By decentralizing the power grid, energy companies are not only future-proofing against Russian attacks but also aiming to create a more sustainable, cleaner energy system. Similarly, projects for internally displaced people are working not just on temporary shelters but on creating energy-efficient, welcoming homes.
These attempts to “build back better” are showing results. In 2023, Ukraine’s GDP grew 5% to $178 billion, and investments increased by 17%. Over 37,000 new businesses were registered, many of which are owned and operated by women.
No discussion of reconstruction can ignore the issue of corruption, a long-standing challenge in Ukraine.(C) The government in Kyiv is addressing this with the Digital Restoration Ecosystem for Accountable Management (DREAM). Once fully implemented, DREAM will require every recovery development project in the country to be registered in the database. Besides fostering project collaboration, the database is intended to curb corruption by enhancing accountability and transparency.
This is not to downplay the enormous immediate costs needed to keep Ukraine functioning. Current estimates suggest that rebuilding Ukraine’s economy will cost $486 billon—recent attacks by Russia have left the energy grid is barely operational. To plan for a future in the midst of a war aimed at erasing your country is an act of defiance. For Ukraine to truly win, it must not only defend itself against Russia’s invasion but also pave the way for prosperity for when the war finally ends.
A) For more on the destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure, see Variation #18.
B) For more on Ukrainian refugees, see Variation #12.
C) For more on corruption in Ukraine see Variation #13.
See below for further reading and background.
Ukraine’s Path to Prosperity, U.S. Department of State, 31 Jul 24.
Reconstructing Ukraine at war: The journey to prosperity starts now, Atlantic Council, 07 Jun 24.
Why We Can Still Imagine a Positive Vision for Ukraine’s Future, U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, 10 Apr 24.
New Homes Rise From Rubble in Ukraine, CreativesUnite, 06 Apr 24.
A new life for IDPs: how a Nefco and EU housing project transformed Ukraine’s Kivertsi community, Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine, 12 Feb 24.
Ukraine GDP, Trading Economics.
What Will Corruption Look Like During the Great Reconstruction of Ukraine, if the Government Step on the “Estimated Butterfly”, ZN,UA, 14 Jun 23.
Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment Released, World Bank Group, 15 Feb 24.